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This year's Gator team is entirely different from last year's Gator team, which was entirely different from the '99-'00 Gators team which made it to the championship game. Just look at the key players from each of these squads.
2000: Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem
2002-2004: David Lee, Anthony Robertson, Matt Walsh
2005: Joakim Noah, Taurean Green, Corey Brewer, Al Horford
In 2000 Florida was a 5 seed and upset three teams (Illinois, Duke, Oklahoma St.) en route to losing to a more talented Michigan State squad.
2001, Florida (a 3 seed) was upset by 11 seed Temple. In 2002, Florida (a 5 seed) was upset by 12 seed Creighton. The next year Florida was upset in the second round by Michigan State. (Starting to sense a pattern?)
In 2004, Florida (a 5 seed again) lost to 12 seed Manhattan. Last year, Florida was upset by Villanova in the second round.
What's my point? The season after the Gators lost Miller and Haslem, the program took a turn for the worse. Lee, Robertson and Walsh failed to live up to the expectations raised by their predecessors and Florida was (fairly) labeled a bust.
Now Billy Donovan has a new batch of guys, all sophomores, which he has to depend on to get him through the tournament. Can Noah and company get past the second round? I don't know, but when it comes to filling out your bracket it's never a bad idea to go against conventional wisdom, especially when there's a good chance conventional wisdom is wrong.
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