Where I've been...

In case anyone still stops by this site I should probably mention that I've now more or less moved over to the Sticks of Fire website. I've been writing for the Sticks for some time now but expect me to write there more often, mostly because the Sticks gives me the opportunity to cover sports other than the NFL. That's not to say I am abandoning this site, come the fall you will still be able to find rants and musings on this site. But if you want to continue reading about the Bucs, in addition to the Rays, Bolts, Gators, Bulls, etc. then head on over to the Sticks.

Of course, if you're looking for daily Bucs commentary (snark included) then I recommend visiting BucStats.com. Even if Scott is the bastard child of Phil Hellmuth and Sammy Farha.

I am the absentee slumlord of this site

My apologies for my absence over the past two months but applying to grad school/work responsibilities have kept me occupied. There is simply not enough time in the day to devote to this crumbling, roach infested excuse for a blog.

Let's get to the most important news first, for the first time in a long time I liked the Bucs draft. As I mentioned at the Sticks, this was a more risk filled draft compared to last year. Last year's draft (and to a lesser degree previous drafts) featured more "safe" picks, i.e. guys who will be starters but not all-stars in the league. Which was mirrored in this year's Bucs team which was solid but lacked playmaking ability. I mentioned this multiple times last season but the Bucs offense was ranked the 10th most efficient by Football Outsiders but ranked only 18th when it came to scoring points (in the same company as the offensively inept Bears). The Bucs offensive weakness was exposed towards the end of the season when defense realized that to shut down the Bucs offense all you had to do was double team Galloway.

Now at this point the astute observer might argue, "Ski, the Bucs didn't draft any playmaking skill players on the offense this year," and those observations would be dead on accurate. I think the Bucs made a huge mistake passing on Limas Sweed in the second round and Mario Manningham in the third. That being written Dexter Jackson could develop into the guy who makes those 2 or 3 big plays a game the Bucs are looking for. I expect Jackson to be mostly used as a kick returner, a position which he could excel at as he was the fastest player timed at this year's combine. If Jackson can make the same impact on the team that Devin Harris has for the Bears or MJD has for the Jags then he was well worth a late second round pick. Jackson's value to this team is as a kick returner and it's just icing on the cake if he makes one or two deep catches a game this season as the 3rd receiver.

Moving on I liked the Aqib Talib over Mike Jenkins pick, even if it led all the Bulls fans to rise up in anger and promise they will never attend another Bucs game. Talib is rated the better prospect by most scouts, and has the ambiguous label of play-maker attached to him, which is best defined using the words of Justice Potter Stewart, "I know it when I see it." A number of scouts considered Talib as top ten prospect talent-wise but he dropped due to concerns about his character. From what I understand the Bucs talked to a number of Talib's coaches and teammates at Kansas and they all had glowing things to say about the cornerback.

Looking around the intertubes at other Bucs blogs, the reaction to the Bucs draft is more subdued. Buccaneer Harbour finds the draft average and compares it to last year (on that point we could not disagree more) and BucStats response to the draft is "meh." Which I believe is the same sound a dying giraffe makes. Even though I respect both of these guys opinion's they could not be more wrong if they had advised Miley Cyrus to do that photo shoot. Buc 'Em continues to offer zero analysis which I believe is a mistake since all that separates his site from Buccaneers.com is the word "official" and some pictures of cheerleaders. UPDATE: Since writing this Buc 'Em has added draft analysis which runs with a similar opinion to my own. Draw conclusions on your own.

On a somewhat interesting sidenote Mel Kiper Jr.s' draft grade for the Bucs was a "B" which might be noteworthy if the guys at Fire Joe Morgan had not revealed that Kiper's draft grades carry about as much insight as a Brittney Spears Guide to Parenting. (That's two pop culture references in one post, an all time high for me. I'm the PerezHilton of Bucs blogs.) Apparently the only grades Kiper had given over the last 3 years are either a "C" or "B" with the exception of an "A" for Kansas City this year. That's some weak sauce from Kiper there.

On a related note, if you are at all interested in sports blogging as a whole it's worth your time to catch the piece on Costos Now on HBO featuring one of the guys from FJM (who also writes for the Office as well, take that blogger-living-in-his-mothers-basement stereotypes!) and Will Leitch from Deadspin. The piece began with a recored look at sports blogs which was balanced but was then followed by a live panel discussion featuring Leith, Buzz Bissinger and Braylon Edwards(?). FJM captures the essence of the panel pretty well but for those who haven't seen it Leitch was unfairly attacked as a representative of blogs. What everyone on the panel with the obvious exception of Leitch failed to grasp was that, as FJM best put it,

The argument I had tried to make in the pre-taped segment was: you can't say anything about "blogs," any more than you can say anything about any medium. There are good blogs and bad blogs. There are blogs that cover the personal lives of athletes, ones that cover only the games, ones that offer opinions, and even a few that quixotically and foolishly attempt to metacriticize the media as a whole.

For better or worse I don't imagine this is a conflict which will get any better anytime soon as sports columnists for newspapers continue to misunderstand and feel threatened by a new medium.

Anyway, with the draft having passed expect me to post more often over at the Sticks with the free time I hope to find more of over the summer. Or then again maybe I'll leave all you to rot in this rat infested blog while I'm busy with other nefarious matters like tying that maiden to the train tracks.

BWA HA HA HA!!!

This All Feels So Familiar

Since I was one of the few (if not the only person) who was opposed to the Bucs cutting ties with Brian Griese in the first place, I guess it's only fitting that I defend the trade to bring Griese back as well. And for the record I feel some what vindicated in my original argument. So, here's my latest argument in support of Griese....

1. Depth - Gruden's strategy at this point is clearly to bring in as many arms into training camp and see who emerges as the second stringer. Jeff Garcia is clearly the starter but no one behind Garcia on the depth chart is lighting the world on fire. Luke McCown could eventually be decent but he may have hit his ceiling. I'm still trying to figure out why Bruce Gradkowski is on the roster (I have a theory involving pictures of Gruden and a donkey). And Chris Simms is still looking for his spleen.

2. Cost - I'm assuming the Bucs traded at most a sixth or seventh round draft pick for Griese, which is nothing for a decent quarterback with playing experience. Personally, I think sixth and seventh rounder draft picks are worthless (although there are always exceptions such as Tom Brady and Marques Colston).

3. Familiarity - Perhaps this explains why so many Bucs fans have contempt for Griese. If nothing else, as TK pointed out, he knows the system. And Gruden knows what he's getting with Griese, a quarterback who just a few years ago looked like the Bucs future quarterback.

On the other hand, there's a perfectly legitimate reason to despise Griese, namely that he is a poor man's Trent Dilfer. For a guy known as a game manager Griese has a high interception percentage (4.6%), the second highest among starters with five or more starts. (By the way, I love the new Pro Football Reference site which along with the Football Outsiders site makes it incredibly easy to compare player's stats.)

Another quick note in defense of the Bucs, they have had a lackluster free agency so far, especially for a team $44 under the salary cap. But with the exception of Randy Moss (whom the Bucs never had a shot at anyway) there weren't any outstanding free agents this year. And with the limited number of free agents available teams ended up over paying for free agents at the in-demand positions, namely receiver and corner. As it is the Bucs grossly over paid for a center.

Catching Up

- First off, my apologies for my infrequent posting. Life and the real world has kept this already sporadic blogger from writing as frequently as I would like. I've mentioned this a few times but you can also find me writing at the Sticks with two recent posts on college basketball in Florida and Rays blogs going into spring training.

- The Bucs have made their first big splash of the offseason, signing Jeff Faine to the biggest contract ever for a center. The Bucs certainly had a need at center and were $44 M under the cap, but they still overspent on Faine. As the Tribune article points out Scouts.com didn't even have Faine rated as the top free agent center much less the best center in the league. What kind of precedent does this set when the other young lineman (Davin Jospeh, Jeremy Trueblood and Aaron Sears) become free agents? The Bucs can not afford to overpay everyone on the o-line.

That being written Faine certainly upgrades the center position. I have to admit even though Faine played the last few seasons with the Saints I knew nothing about him. Buccaneer Harbour says Faine is a much better pass blocker and slightly better run blocker than former Bucs center John Wade, and unless I see different I'm inclined to believe that.

One final thought on the Faine signing, what does this mean for Dan Buenning? He had an excellent rookie season playing at left guard but injuries and Aaron Sears have forced him to switch positions. It was originally believed that Buenning would be moved to center but it now looks like he will become the team's backup/utility interior lineman. Buenning makes a little over $500,000 for the next two seasons before becoming a free agent in 2010.

- With the center position covered the Bucs are now looking to pickup a receiver in free agency. According to the Times Bucs Beat the Bucs have stayed away from the bigger names at receiver, which makes sense with the big money being thrown at Jerry Porter ($30 M) and Bernard Berrian. Randy Moss is off the table as he will likely command the most money ever paid to a receiver. That leaves the Bucs with DJ Hackett and Devery Henderson, or possibly Donte Stallworth.

Hackett and Henderson have both been unimpressive and neither is the answer for the Bucs at reciever. Hackett appears to be a more hyped version of Michael Clayton and Henderson was sporadic as best last season with the Saints. Stallworth would be a valuable addition to the team, but he doesn't fit the Gruden model of a tall, physical receiver and there are no indications the Bucs are interested in him. The Times Bucs Beat seems to believe the Bucs will target a receiver in the first round, and I'm inclined to believe that as well.

- This falls under the obligatory mention of the draft but I feel very strongly that the Bucs will draft one of four players in the first round: Limas Sweed, Mario Manningham, Malcolm Kelly or DeSean Jackson. All four are considered the top four receivers in the draft although everyone has them ranked differently. At least two of the players will be available when the Bucs draft at #20.

UPDATE [3:44] - The last two days show the value of blogs as the Bucs blogs of the two major newspapers in Tampa Bay have broken most of the news about free agent signing and visits. I've already mentioned the Times Bucs Beat, but the Tribune's Bucs Report has been active the last two days as well. Also, the Pewter Report has a good roundup of activity by essentially turning their message board into a moderators-write only blog. BucStats also has a free agency tracker with a more detailed roundup.

Tightend Ben Troupe is visiting One Buc Place today and I hope the Bucs are able to sign him to a contract. Maybe I'm being swayed by my love of the Gators but I always thought Troupe had the ability to be a productive tightend in the NFL. He is in the mold of Alex Smith, i.e. is more of a pass catching tightend. His production has slipped the last few seasons but I like to think that is more a result of playing with Vince Young than a measure of his abilities.

The Meat Market Is Open

- The NFL's Annual Meat Market and best example of the dangers of group think kicks off this weekend. Few events are more overrated than the NFL Combine, where NFL scouts throw all logic out the window and fall in love with the guy with the best 40 time. It's the time when analysts preface their statements with "of course college games are the most important factor" but then do the exact opposite and rank players based on their combine results. Mike Mayock of the NFL Network ranking's going into the combine partially reflect this backwards logic (although critics could argue I'm putting the cart before the horse here).

Mike Mayock is the latest hotness in NFL Draft "experts" and in his rankings not only does he have Sedric Ellis ranked ahead of Glenn Dorsey but he has Rashard Mendenhall ranked over Darren McFadden. Never mind that at the end of the season both Dorsey and McFadden were widely considered possible number one overall picks. If I'm a scout or NFL GM I'm taking into account both Dorsey's and McFadden's better and more consistent track records, not only are both players considered two of the best collegiate players right now, they were considered two of the best players at the beginning of the season. The problem with NFL scouting is the same problem with the media's coverage of the Presidential race, everyone falls in love with the latest hotness, aka contestant/player. For example, the media fell in love with Fred Thompson when he first entered the race but we all know how that ended. The same can be said of Barack Obama who the media has treated with kid gloves. The NFL Draft analysts are guilty of the same failing, falling in love with the latest hotness which in this case would be Ellis and Mendenhall. I could very easily turn this into a diatribe on the obvious media bias despite supposed journalistic integrity but I will avoid the Rush Limbaugh go to move.

Also, as long as I'm throwing stones at the NFL Combine it's worth mentioning that a cottage industry has sprung up in the last few years centered on training players for the Combine. As this Sun-Sentinel article explains, there are a variety of camps that train prospects how to excel at the Combine. (By the way, that's just one of dozens of articles which popped up when I googled "nfl combine cottage industry.") The argument can be made that very little advantage is maintained if everyone has the same training but much like the SAT prep courses which train people how to take the test but fail to actually measure their intelligence, the end result of the NFL Combine is that prospects are tested on their ability to run through hoops and around cones instead of measuring their ability to play football.

- As BucStats has pointed out the Falcons finally had some luck and won a coin flip giving them the third overall pick. The buzz is that the Dirty Birds would pick Matt Ryan, the underwhelming quarterback out of Boston College. I'm assuming the thinking behind this is that Atlanta needs the "franchise quarterback" and Ryan is considered the top quarterback in the draft. I'm really hoping Atlanta falls for this fallacy and drafts Ryan, a player who has consistently failed to impress me when I watched him play (and since I'm in ACC country I've watched a few of his games). Without going into the detailed argument against taking a quarterback in the first round there is more value in players like McFadden and Dorsey. There are typically only a half dozen or so guys that are not only great athletes but also great college players. (Last year those players would have been Calvin Johnson, JaMarcus Russell, Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, LaRon Landry, and Adrian Peterson. With the exception of Russell all these guys will eventually be multiple Pro Bowlers barring injury and/or pulling a Pacman Jones.)

Since the new Atlanta GM is a former Patriots guy (although I may be wrong about that) I'm inclined to think the Falcons will NOT draft Ryan. The Pats draft strategy has been to ignore the hype and draft value players who fit the franchise. This is also where it would be convenient to spout some crap about drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. As a Bucs fan my biggest concern is that the Falcons make the "smart" move and draft an offensive lineman (Jake Long) or a defensive lineman (Ellis, Dorsey, or Chris Long) as lineman typically make the most immediate impact on a team.

- A quick note on the Bucs and the NFL Draft as we begin the marathon to the NFL Draft in April. Gruden and Company have typically kept the players they like close to their vest and refuse to release any information to the media. As far as I know the Bucs refuse to even take phone calls from reporters during this period although I'm basing that on heresay and may be wrong. The exception to that is when Gruden clearly goes ga-ga for a player as he did for Calvin Johnson last year. One great press conference from last year comes to mind where Gruden went out of his way to praise all the top players not named Calvin Johnson but never mentioned the Tech receiver except for some very light praise. I did the same thing in middle school when I really liked one girl I would ignore her and talk to all her friends. Needless to say that strategy only made my crush all the more obvious and failed to work.

Anyway, my childhood embarrassment aside looking at Gruden's previous drafts one of the obvious trends is that Gruden loves him some receivers as well as offensive lineman. And since the Bucs are fairly full at the offensive lineman position it makes sense to predict Gruden will draft a receiver, considering the lack of depth at the position. Although Gruden's previous success or lack thereof in drafting receivers is a concern, Marquise Walker and Michael Clayton have been busts and Maurice Stovall is heading in that direction.

Charging at Windmills (Why Alge Crumpler Should Not Be a Buc)

In what can only be described as an effort to remain the NFC South's doormat, the Falcons have released about half their decent players including Alge Crumpler. For reasons that are beyond me some have advocated signing Crumpler, despite the fact that he is an average tightend. What's even more amazing is that same person has demanded the Bucs offer Crumpler a $4.5 M contract, even when the widely acknowledged best tightend in the league (Antonio Gates) makes $3 M a year. So let's break down why this is a phenomenally bad idea.

First off the Bucs have a pretty good tightend in Alex Smith. I will admit some bias here as I've been a big fan of Smith since his first game when he caught two touchdowns. Smith is the new age prototypical tightend, a big man with speed and good hands, i.e. a tightend who is more receiver than blocker. Which is exactly what Alge is as well. Let's take a closer look at the stats (I know, a novel idea to say the least)...

The Football Outsiders have Alex Smith rated one spot ahead of Crumpler, which means the two players are about even. Both have a catch percentage of 60% and roughly equal value per play. So Crumpler is essentially Alex Smith part deux, or vice versa depending on how you look at it, i.e. they are almost exactly the same players. Now Alex Smith will make $460,000 next season and is under contract for the next two seasons. So explain why it makes sense to sign an identical player to Alex Smith for ten times more money? Of course, if Crumpler could be signed for the veteran's minimum I would sing a different tune.

NFL DRAFT

I am starting to feel better and better about the possibility of the Bucs drafting Mario Manningham in the first round. Mike Mayock of the NFL Network has him listed as the top receiver in this year's draft. And in Don Banks latest mock draft he has the Bucs drafting the Michigan receiver. Now at this point the draft is all speculation, at least until we get past the combine. But it appears most draftniks are running with the idea that the Bucs need a receiver or an offensive tackle in the first round.

Brian Kelly Doesn't Like Money

Brian Kelly has made the odd decision to buyout the last year of his $3.2 million contract and test the free agency waters. Considering Kelly is 32 and has missed 20 games over the past two years because of injury I doubt he will get the big payday he hopes for. Kelly's best chance is to go for a multi-year contract with a decent signing bonus.

While this appears to be the perfect chance to resign Kelly at a lower price, Kelly's squabbles with Bruce Allen. Last offseason Kelly skipped voluntary workouts because Allen refused to negotiate a new deal. Seeing as how this came right after Allen negotiated a new deal with Ronde Barber you can see how Kelly would be miffed.

For next season the Bucs should be in good shape with Phillip Buchanon starting in Kelly's place, which worked pretty well for the Bucs last season. Although the Bucs should consider drafting a corner to eventually replace Barber, and in that vein Buc'Em has a list of the corners in the draft.

Catching Up

Seeing as how this is a Bucs blog, I am required by the Buccaneer Blogging Code to mention that Mike Alstott has officially retired. Hurrah, Mike Alstott is/was awesome and the Bucs will never be the same without him. He is man, a man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn.

With Alstott's retirement there is naturally talk about a) the A-Train's chances of getting into the Hall of Fame and, b) retiring #40. I don't believe there is any chance for the former to happen unless the sports writers/voters really have a hard-on for Alstott. And the latter is unlikely as it would set a precedent that would require the Bucs to retire Derrick Brooks', Warren Sapp's and Ronde Barber's numbers as well. Retiring four numbers from one team is a bit much and I can't think of any other teams which have won only one Super Bowl who have done so. If the Bucs are going to retire any numbers from that Super Bowl team they should limit the retired numbers to two: 99 and 55.

Alstott's retirement brings up a much more relevant question, why don't the Bucs have some way to honor their players of the past? This is the Ring of Honor idea which has been bandied about for the past few years. Conventional wisdom is that the Glazers have shied away from a "Ring of Honor" because they are ashamed of the past. A much more likely explanation is that with the exception of a few players there are not a lot of Buccaneers worth honoring, the players which come to mind would be James Wilder, Lee Roy Selmon, Ricky Bell, Hardy Nickerson, Doug Williams. But now with the retirements of Alstott and Warren Sapp, and with Derrick Brooks and John Lynch getting closer to that point the Bucs may finally have enough players to begin honoring them somehow.

In Defense of Jeff Garcia

Garcia's nomination to the Pro Bowl has come under fire in some quarters but ignoring total numbers Garcia put up some impressive stats. Garcia finished with the 3rd best QB rating in the NFC, and also had an impressive yards per completion average. Garcia had 11.6 yards per completion compared to 11.7 for Favre, 11.3 for Hasselbeck and 10.0 for Brees. Total yards and touchdowns can be somewhat misleading as teams which are behind more often (i.e. the Saints) will throw more often and have more passing yards. And as Warrick Dunn can attest to during his time in Tampa Bay touchdowns are not the best measurement of a player's value to a team.

[Insert Broken Cadillac Pun Here]

The rumor of the day, courtesy of the premier rumor mongers in the NFL, is that Cadillac's career may be over. I put zero stock in this rumor, mostly because the PFT crotch puppets have admitted that they have zero journalistic integrity. This is a website which blatantly manufactures stories to generate traffic to their website.

That being written it is very likely we will not see Cadillac for the first part of next season. The knee injury Cadillac suffered (torn patellar tendon) is much more serious than an ACL tear. Before the 2006 season Browns center LeCharles Bentley suffered the same injury (although he also had to deal with serious staph infection) and Bentley has not played since.

It will be interesting to see if the Bucs consider drafting a runningback in this draft. While the Bucs look to be in good shape with Graham as the very-down guy and Michael Bennett potentially being the big-play guy, there is a good deal of back depth in this year's draft.

Gruden and Company Might still be w/ Bucs in 3 Years

The big news out of 1 Buc Place (can we still call it that?) is that Gruden and Bruce Allen have been signed to 3 year deals. Which would be impressive if contracts actually meant anything in the NFL. If the Glazers (who are the 2nd richest owners in the NFL) really wanted to fire Gruden next season I doubt a three year contract is holding them back. Contracts in the NFL are about as meaningless as primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa SHOULD be.

That being written, Gruden and Company certainly deserved to have their contracts extended past next season. Gruden inherited an aging team, won a Super Bowl in the team's last window of opportunity to do so, and has been forced to rebuild without four high draft picks. For all the criticism thrown at him Gruden has been remarkably successful for the amount of talent he has had.

If there is a fair complaint to be throw at Gruden it is that he is a very poor talent evaluator when it comes to draft picks. He is average at best. And since Allen's real skill is negotiating contracts and cap management it might be a good idea for the Bucs to pick up a better talent evaluator to put in the front office.

ALSTOTT TO RETIRE

This isn't really much of news either, if Alstott didn't retire this season there was a good chance his head would simply fall off. The long time fan favorite should have retired a long time, in 2003 he had a vertebrae removed from his neck, replaced with bone from a cadaver and had the entire thing fused with titanium. Alstott was the NFL version of Frankenstein.

This has always been one of the things I felt uncomfortable about with the NFL, players sacrificing their long-term health for short term gratitude. We like to talk about how tough these guys are but when you see 55 year old players walking around with canes you can understand why Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders wanted to get out early.

Finally Gruden announced he has a "mystery candidate" to fill an assistant coaching slot. Currently the Bucs are looking for runningbacks and quarterbacks coaches so unless they announce Mike Alstott is the new quarterbacks coach I'm not sure which hire would "shock" me.

The Super Bowl is Dead to Me this Year

At the risk of 2 weeks of man-love from sports writers such as Peter King I was prepared to root for the Packers in the Super Bowl. Just about anything was better than the prospect of a New York-Boston Super Bowl featuring Tom Brady and Eli Manning. Both groups of fans are among sports most unbearable and leave me rooting against otherwise compelling teams. Boston's teams were so much better when they were the lovable losers, like the protagonist in a John Hughes movie. Now, despite having some of pro-sports best teams, Boston fans still have a massive inferiority complex.

As for the Giants, if anyone deserved to inherit the Dan Marino Mantle from Peyton Manning (best quarterback to not win the Super Bowl) it is Eli. Eli could have been the quarterback for San Diego yesterday, an incredibly talented team of players that if not for a gimpy quarterback and having their best player injured would have beat New England. The Chargers are going down as one of those great what if? teams. Considering how poorly Phillip Rivers plays what would have happened if the Chargers has drafted Eli instead? Or what would have happened if the Chargers had kept Drew Brees and drafted Larry Fitzgerald (who was drafted 3rd overall) with the #1 overall pick. If not for a few foolish mistakes by the Chargers management we could be talking about San Diego as the greatest team ever. Yet, I digress.

I never thought I would see the day where I would consider skipping the Super Bowl, but yet here we are. We saw this matchup 3 weeks ago, so we already have a rough idea of how the game will play out. And the best part about the Super Bowl, the commercials, will be replayed roughly 50 million times over the year.

BACK TO THE BUCS...

In some good news Monte Kiffin has apparently resigned w/ the Bucs for roughly $2 M. This after Rick Stroud of the St Pete Times "reported" both sides were no where close to a deal after the Bucs supposedly tried to low ball Kiffin. I will refrain from commenting further as BucStats has already done so, except to say all these rumors of Monte leaving town were just that...rumors.

Speaking of rumors the Bucs are being considered as one of four teams to potentially play a regular season game in London next year. I've not been a big fan of the NFL going overseas mostly because I don't believe there is the same potential market for the sport globally as there has been for basketball and baseball. If the NFL makes the mistake of tabbing the Bucs to play in London I will go into this in more detail but the NFL is not a sport you simply export especially when you are competing against futbol.

I'm Like a Dog w/ a Bone

The Draft isn't until March and the Bucs don't pick until the 20th hole but yet here I am devoting my third straight post to the damn thing. The Draft is like Vegas, everyone goes in thinking they're going to win but you know the House is going to win. The odds are stacked against you, but everyone still get excited about it.

Scouts Inc and current ESPN Product Todd McShay (check your contract Todd, the WWL now owns your soul) has released his mock draft which has our Bucs drafting OT Sam Baker out of USC. While this isn't the only mock I've seen with the Bucs drafting Baker it does strike me as odd for the following reasons...

1) The Bucs already have two left tackles, Luke Petitgout and Donald Penn
2) The Bucs have bigger needs, notably receiver and undertackle

I'm not completely ruling out Gruden and Company drafting an offensive tackle with the first pick, based on the last two drafts it's obvious Gruden has a hard on for offensive lineman. But drafting an offensive tackle makes little sense after spending as much as the Bucs did on Petitgout unless Gruden has serious doubts about both Petitgout's ability to return next season and Penn's ability to start at left tackle. Even is the former is a likely possibility the latter is highly unlikely. While Penn is not about to make it to any Pro Bowls he was reliable at left tackle.

Which leads us right back to drafting a receiver. McShay has four receivers drafted around the Bucs pick, and most draft talk at this point has six possible receivers being drafted in the first round. The receiver crop this year appears to shake out much like it did in 2004. That was the year we saw 6 receivers drafted in the first round, including Michael Clayton. This year's potential 1st rounders include

DeSean Jackson - Cal

Malcolm Kelly - Okla

Limas Sweed - Texas

Mario Manningham - Mich

Early Doucet - LSU

James Hardy - Indiana

I've already stated my support for Manningham (the solid if somewhat overwhelming choice) but I'm starting to come around to Sweed. He was widely considered the top receiver before the season started and if not for a wrist injury could have gone in the top ten. He's one of those guys who you get the feeling that looking back in ten years could have been the steal of the draft.

Anyway, like I mentioned at the beginning, we're a long ways away from the Draft so I'm sure I will waste a few more words on the subject between now and April.

Better Know A Potential Draft Pick: The Receivers

I mentioned in my offseason wish list that the number one priority for the Bucs should be getting a receiver. With the exception of Galloway the Bucs lack a dangerous playmaker, and their scoring suffered for it. To Gruden's and Garcia's credit, the Bucs had an efficient offense, in fact according to the Football Outsiders the Bucs had the 10th most efficient offense. But they were only 18th in the league in scoring, and might have been worse if teams figured out earlier that the key to stopping the Bucs was double-teaming Galloway.

BucStats makes a compelling argument for a few of the receivers who will be hitting the free agent market. Larry Fitzgerald and Jerry Porter are both appealing options, Fitzgerald because he is one of the best young receivers and Porter because he is the type of value player I mentioned before, i.e. someone who's stock has fallen because of personal issues. And while Fitzgerald may be too expensive for the Bucs, Porter may be a good fit, just look at how much Randy Moss's value went through the roof once he left the Raiders. Porter is one of the better receivers in this league, but you would never know it with the Raiders motley crew of quarterbacks.

Jamarcus Russell's Decision Making on Full Display

This looks to be a deep year at receiver for the NFL Draft, and while receivers are always dangerous picks (Exhibit A: Michael Clayton) it is worth the time to consider drafting a receiver in the first round. On to the picks.

Adarius Bowman (#25 Overall) - Oklahoma State
I'm going off the rankings found at Great Blue North Draft Report, which was updated just a day ago. I know little about Bowman other than he is tall which means Gruden is already considering drafting him.

Malcolm Kelly (#27) - Oklahoma
Another Big 12 receiver which I rarely watched.

DeSean Jackson (#31) - California
Jackson is one of the more intriguing prospects to me, he is raw as a receiver but has the speed and explosiveness to go in the first round based on potential. He could be the Ted Ginn Jr. pick of this draft, and could contribute immediately in the kick return game. Don't expect him to work his way into the starting lineup on opening day though.

Limas Sweed (#35) - Texas
Another tall Big 12 receiver Sweed was considered one of the best college receivers before the season started but injuries kept him out for much of the year. Another guy who will be drafted based on the mysterious "potential" aspect.

Mario Manningham (#37) - Michigan
Mario is one of the guys I'm leaning towards having the Bucs draft, he appears to be a complete receiver who does not excel in one area but is not lacking in anyone area either, i.e. this year's Anthony Gonzalez. While Manningham has not yet declared his new coach has mentioned that he expects Manningham to do so. Mario has missed one of the teams first meetings.

James Hardy (#39) - Indiana

Earl Bennett (#42) - Vanderbilt

Devin Thomas (#47) - Michigan State

Early Doucet (#51) - LSU
Early this late? Color me surprised.

The REAL Fans Offseason Wish List

Hello to all the Bucs fans out there, my name is Big Al and I’m the newest writer at this website. I will be giving y’all a REAL fans perspective of the Bucs, not like the bunch of whining nancies who have been writing on this site. So since Ski has given y’all his offseason wish list here is the REAL fan’s wishlist:

1. FIRE GRUDEN!!!

This no talent hack has been stinking up Tampa ever since he arrived. What has he done besides winning a Super Bowl (with Saint Dungy’s players!) and three division titles? Nothing, that’s what! If the McKay’s had any brains the first thing they would do this week would be to fire Gruden and then get Bill Parcells to be the coach. The ’86 Giants were totally the BEST TEAM EVER plus the Big Tuna is a total badass.

2. Draft the Best Florida Player in the First Round!

This is a Flori-duh kind of move. Every year I argue we should draft the best college player in the state. Last year it was Jarvis Moss and the year before that Ernie Sims. Both years that dummy Gruden passed on the best player in the state. If he doesn’t draft Derrick Harvey this year Gruden TOTALLY deserves to get fired!

Derrick Harvey: Obviously The Best Player In The Country

3. Trade for Randy Moss!

This is a no-brainer. What did the Pats trade for Moss, like a third round pick? The Bucs can just up the offer and trade a second round pick for Moss. If that doesn’t work just throw in Michael Clayton as well. I don’t know why Gruden hasn’t thought of this trade.

4. Make Jake Plummer the Starter!

You know why the Bucs lost to the Giants? Besides Gruden being such a bad coach, it was because of that nancy Jeff Garcia. T.O. was right, if it smells like a rat. What do you mean Garcia is married to a former Playboy Bunny? Jake the Snake, his porn-stache, and his backwards passes are still more manly than Garcia and his “play it safe” game.

5. Guarantee Derrick Brooks a Lifetime Starting Spot!

Gruden is a moron if he doesn’t guarantee Brooks as a lifetime starter at linebacker, competition for the position be damned. Brooks is TOTALLY going into the Hall of Fame, and any player going into the Hall of Fame has to be great, right? And it’s not like players get slower as they got older, at least not great players like Brooks. Plus Brooks is a great community guy and benching him would hurt the feelings of all the kids Brooks takes to Africa during the offseason.

The Best Bucs Blog Offseason Wish List

If you caught yesterday’s playoff game then you know the Bucs are about as close to winning a Super Bowl next season as Ron Paul is to winning the White House. Hindsight being 20-20 it’s pretty obvious the Bucs benefited from a weak schedule and an even weaker division. If they had played in the AFC this would have been at best a 6 win team.

The following list are the top three things I think the Bucs need to do in order to be considered Super Bowl contenders next season. I am assuming the Bucs keep most if not all their starters, and to be honest I have no idea which players will be free agents this offseason.

I have my doubts that Gruden and Company will make any dramatic changes seeing as how Gruden’s modus operandi has been to shy away from changing personnel unless he could potentially lose his job. Gruden stuck with Chris Simms after the Skins playoff loss even though the offense looked anemic during the game. I’m not suggesting the Bucs dump Jeff Garcia (although it wouldn’t kill the Bucs to finally get rid of Simms and Gradkowski) but there are some wholesale changes which should be made.

1. Get a Receiver
This is the one thing on the list I have the most faith in Gruden to accomplish considering how much he wanted to draft Calvin Johnson last year. The Bucs have no receiver depth behind Joey Galloway, and their two leading receivers are both over 30. If Galloway is shut down, like he was yesterday, then the Bucs offense is shut down as well. Alex Smith has shown promise and will be a greater receiving threat next season.

On the other hand the Bucs two young receivers, Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall, have shown little promise. It’s safe to label Clayton a bust at this point and write him off as a cautionary tale of drafting receivers early. I’m not advising against keeping Clayton, he serves a valuable role as a third receiver, but he has failed to produce when needed and finished sixth on the team in total receptions. Stovall could turn out to be a good second receiver but much like Clayton appears to be a better special teams player than a primary receiver.

There are two obvious ways to get a receiver, through the draft and free agency. If the Bucs draft a receiver I hope they go after somebody who is already developed as a receiver (Mario Manningham, Andre Caldwell) as opposed to an unpolished receiver with a lot of upside (DeSean Jackson, Limas Sweed). I have no idea who the free agent candidates are at receiver but you typically don’t find good, young receivers in free agency. My suggestion to the Bucs is to make a stab at trading for Chris Henry, who for reasons I will get to in the next section has a lot of value for the Bucs.

Trading For Chris Henry Couldn't Possibly Backfire, Right?

2. Find the Value Player(s)
The key for any championship team is to find players which other teams undervalue. BnB pointed this out a few days ago but the Spurs built a championship team by drafting foreign born players with good fundamentals at a time when foreign-born players were undervalued. The Oakland A’s under Billy Bean found college players which other teams undervalued.

The Bucs have done a pretty good job of this so far, both Jerremy Stevens (DUI) and Phillip Buchanon (poor coaching) had been undervalued until they were picked up by the Bucs. Gruden has never shied away from giving players a second chance, and for the most part the strategy has worked out well for him. Chris Henry, the receiver for the Bengals fits this bill as the Bucs would probably not have to give up much and roll the dice with the hope Henry doesn’t get convicted a fourth time. Actually on second thought I’m not so sure about trading for Chris Henry.

The other position which has been undervalued in the NFL is kick returner, although I feel that tide is starting to turn. Devin Hester is the Bears only offense and was a late second round pick. The Steelers were forced to kick away or punt the ball out of bounds against the Jaguars this weekend because they were concerned about Maurice Jones-Drew (who was also a late second round pick). So far the Bucs have given little thought to the kick return position as evidenced by handing the position to a player who was on the practice squad for half the season (Micheal Spurlock).

Spurlock: Suddenly Expendable

3. Obtain Another Pass Rusher
While the Bucs pass rush got better as the season progressed the d-line never resembled the Bucs d-line’s of old. Monte Kiffin should be congratulated for generating as much of pass rush with this rag-tag bunch of misfits as he did but the lack of talent on the d-line was exposed by the Giants. Gaines Adams looks like he will turn out to be a very good pass rusher the Bucs defense has worked best when they have had two pass rushers (a la Sapp and Rice).

Preferably the Bucs will pick up an undertackle, seeing as how Jovan Haye has not been impressive this season. This may be the most difficult position to fill since there are such a small number of players with the skill sets required to play the position. A pass rushing defensive is also a consideration although the Bucs have a few players who fit the bill (Greg White, Kevin Carter) already.

Got any suggestions for changes you would like to see? Leave ‘em in the comments.

Gameday: Giants @ Bucs

A Sticks preview chock full of more goodies than usual can be found here.

As far as predictions go I've been seeing a lot of love for the Giants but most writers are predicting a win for the Bucs (and the last one is sure to get a rise out of all the Dr. Z haters in the house)...

Bill Simmons - BUCS
Peter King - BUCS
Ron Jaworski - BUCS
Clark Judge - BUCS
Paul Zimmerman - GIANTS

While I don't agree with Dr. Z's prediction I do agree with his assessment. The Giants d-line is just plain nasty and the Bucs o-line has a long way to be considered one of the best in the league. Jeff Garcia will get hit today and the Giants will be a tough out for the Bucs.

One last thing before I head over to my buddy's place (who is a Giants fan) to watch the game, for all the talk about the Bucs resting their starters they for the most part played all their defensive starters over the last two weeks. Sure, in the third and fourth quarter they did pull a lot of the defensive starters but the Bucs defense will be ready to play today.

NEW YORK 24, TAMPA BAY 14

To quote Rays Index that game stunk like a baby diaper full of Indian food. With the exception of the first quarter the Bucs were outplayed by the Giants and Tampa Bay had no right to even play in that game. Most people are going to break down everything that the Bucs should have done but here's the secret to what went wrong for the Bucs............................................THEY DIDN'T SCORE ENOUGH POINTS.

This Bucs offense is pathetic and Trueblood was dominated by Strahan all day, as a result Garica couldn't throw it deep without throwing an interception. The Bucs need a lot of help to truly be Super Bowl contenders but I have little to no faith in Gruden and company to make the changes that need to be made.

Look for my offseason wish list to be published tomorrow.

Sapp Will Be the 2nd Buc in the HOF

For those who have been living under a rock in a cave without access to television or the internet (kinda like I have the past week) our man Warren Sapp has announced his retirement. It would have been nice to have seen Sapp ride off into the sunset last season after he led all defensive tackles in sacks as opposed to this season when Sapp managed to garner three personal fouls in a minute. Sapp was the player every opposing fan loved to hate, but hated to admit they would want Sapp on their team.

It's a testament to Sapp's dominance that he is a lock to get into Canton (only one other Buc, i.e. Derrick Brooks, can make the same claim). Let's look at Sapp's credentials:

'99 Defensive Player of the Year
7 Pro Bowls
96.5 sacks over 13 seasons (7.4 sacks a season)
'03 Super Bowl Champion

By comparison Lee Roy Selmon was elected to six Pro Bowls, won Defensive Player of the Year in 1979 and recorded 78.5 sacks over 9 seasons (8.7 sacks a season).

Sapp's critics will likely point to his "controversies" with Mike Sherman when he was the Packers head coach and skipping through the Steelers warmups, overlooking that in both instances Sapp was not the one who initiated the confrontations (Sherman approached Sapp over a block which Packers player Chad Clifton admitted was clean and the Steelers Lee Flowers had taunted the Bucs as Paper Champions before the game). Even replays of the 3 personal fouls against Sapp a few weeks ago show he never touched an official.

By the way, gotta love Sapp's announcement at his website, QBKilla.com.