Vegas Knew It Was a Trap

I briefly mentioned before kickoff that the Texans game had the whiff of a trap game to me, and it appears Vegas figured this out well before I did. From Dr. Z's power rankings today comes this bit of info...

On Sunday evening, the week before the game, I set my logical price at Bucs favored by three. They had beaten New Orleans on the road, Houston had lost to Tennessee by eight. The first line posted by Vegas, the opening line Sunday night, was Texans favored by one. It varied from mine by four, so it was a slam dunk formula pick. Go their way and take Houston because Vegas obviously is begging for Tampa Bay money. Sure enough, the opening line, also known as the "outlaw line," stayed up very briefly, and was quickly bet up to Bucs minus 3 ½. Vegas caught a lot of fish when the Texans won.

I had to read that twice just to fully comprehend what it meant, but essentially the Casinos knew this was a trap game for the Bucs and purposely set a low line to fool bettors into losing money on it. Which they promptly did even though, as the Football Outsider guys point out, the Bucs mostly outplayed the Texans during the game.

What is the lesson learned? Beware the trap road games the week following divisional road games. Especially when the opponent has Andre Johnson.

More Essential Bucs History (and a rare midday post)

To piggyback off my post from yesterday there has been some conversation on what the largest spread ever has been for a game as the Pats are playing the Jets (revenge for Spygate) and 'Phins (who are just plain bad) later this season. The Pats have seen a 17 point spread a few times this season (against Buffalo, Cleveland and Miami) and have covered each time. In fact the Pats are perfect against the spread for the season (although technically they pushed on the 4 point spread against the Colts). Which leads to the question, will we see the highest spread ever in the NFL this season?

First off, we need to know what the highest spread ever has been. Apparently this honor belongs to the '76 Bucs, who were 24 point underdogs to the defending Super Bowl Champion Steelers. For the record Steve Spurrier's team lost to Pittsburgh by a score of 42-0. Kudos to Dr. Z at SI for figuring this out. For all the grief BucStats gives him, the guy is one of the more knowledgeable NFL guys out there.

Anyway, I doubt we will see a spread that high this season. I could see 21 points but even that is getting into rarely seen levels for the NFL. Which means Steve Spurrier and his 0-14 Bucs team will likely keep at least one record for mediocrity this season.